Women in the U.S. gave birth to roughly 710,000 fewer children last year compared with the nation's peak in 2007, according to preliminary data released this week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Lead researcher Brady Hamilton, a demographer with the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, said the latest one percent drop in "general fertility" from 2024 to 2025 is part of a long-running downward trend.
"Since 2007, there's been a decline in the general fertility rate [in the U.S.] of 23%," Hamilton told NPR.
The impact of that change in real numbers is sizable: In 2007, there were 4,316,233 babies born. Last year, even though the nation's population as a whole is larger, there were only 3,606,400 newborns.
There's no consensus over why women and couples have shifted their behavior so significantly. Some experts point to economic factors, others say cultural influences, and better access to education and contraception for women are driving the change.
"[This study] does not provide information about the decisions people were making and the factors they were taking into consideration as they were thinking about starting a family or increasing their family size," Hamilton said.
Whatever the causes, many demographers and economists see the apparent shift toward smaller families and fewer children as a significant concern for the nation and its labor force, especially as immigration into the U.S. has also plunged under the Trump administration.
A report published earlier this year by the Congressional Budget Office found that because of these combined trends, the nation's population is likely to age more rapidly and also grow far less, with roughly 8 million fewer residents in the U.S. by 2055 than once predicted.
"The population [of people in the U.S.] age 24 or younger is projected to decline in each of the next 30 years," the CBO's authors concluded.
The downward fertility trend in the U.S. reflects an even more dramatic shift in much of the world.
In East Asia, Europe and even many South American countries, the total fertility rate has plunged far below what's known as the "replacement" level. That means not enough children are being born to maintain a stable population without significant levels of immigration.
In the U.S., too, the total fertility rate is now well below replacement level. But some economists say it's unclear whether the trend toward fewer children reflects a permanent national shift.
One possibility, according to economist Martha Bailey, head of the California Center for Population Research at the University of California, Los Angeles, is that U.S. women are delaying motherhood and will have more children later in life.
"We're seeing big drops in fertility rates for young women, teenagers and women in their 20s," Bailey said. "What's not yet clear is whether or not those same women will go on to have children later on."
A CDC study published in March of last year found fertility rates rising among women in their 30s and 40s, though not fast enough to offset drops among younger women.
Bailey said it makes sense to have a policy discussion around ideas that might make it easier for couples to choose to have children, or to have more kids during their lifetimes.
"People are having the number of children they want and that they can afford at a time that makes the most sense for them," she said. "What I don't think anyone is in favor of is a Handmaid's Tale type policy regime, where we're trying to talk families into having children they don't want."
One silver lining in this data is a sizable drop in the rate of teenagers giving birth to children, which fell by 7% in 2025. Public health officials say the decline in children and teens having children represents major progress.
"What is actually affecting the birth rates are likely lower rates of teen pregnancy overall, which is in the context of higher use of contraception and lower sexual activity for youth, and then also continued access to abortion care," said Bianca Allison, pediatrician and associate professor at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine, in an interview with NPR.
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