If redistricting efforts move ahead in Indiana, it could impact House districts in the northern part of the state.
Saint Mary’s College Political Science Professor Sean Savage says Republicans could try to flip Northwest Indiana’s First District by adding some Republican voting areas closer to South Bend and Lafayette.
“If the Republicans in the state legislature and the governor want to redistrict before the midterms, it’s most likely going to be the First District, but of course, if you change the district lines of the First, it’s going to have at least some influence on here in the Second District and also in the Fourth District,” Savage said.
Savage noted that incumbent Frank Mrvan (D-Highland) only won reelection with about 53 percent of the vote, a much narrower margin than his predecessor Pete Visclosky typically got.
Still, flipping a longtime Democrat seat may not be easy.
“You would need to do quite a few changes to that district, to try to shift the voters so that there are enough Republicans to swing that seat,” said Elizabeth Bennion, Chancellor’s Professor of Political Science at Indiana University South Bend.
In a statement Tuesday, Mrvan said the idea of calling in the Indiana General Assembly for a special session on redistricting is “reprehensible.” He accused the Trump administration of trying to cling to power, despite “wildly unpopular” policies.
The timing suggests that Republicans are concerned about keeping their narrow House majority in next year’s midterm elections. The U.S. Constitution doesn’t prohibit states from redistricting more than once a decade, but it’s rare.
“This really is highly unusual,” Bennion said. “It would be totally correct to read it as purely political.”
Even if the redistricting effort is successful in Indiana, there may still be drawbacks for Republicans.
Savage noted that adding Republican areas to the First congressional district would also mean taking them away from the Second and Fourth. “Strangely enough, it might then have the effect of making the Second and Fourth districts slightly less Republican in their voting behavior,” he said.
Bennion added that the changes may not just upset Democrats, but also fiscal conservatives, who may question the expense of a special session at the same time the state tries to cut costs.
